What do the numbers say about the Oahu market?
The three reports I run from MLS data, what each one tells you, and how to use them.
Three numbers tell you most of what matters about selling or buying on Oahu right now: what similar homes actually closed for after seller credits, what share of listings in your neighborhood are selling and how fast, and when in the year homes near you tend to sell fastest. I pull all three from the MLS, by neighborhood, and refresh them on a schedule. They do not replace a conversation about your home. They make that conversation honest.
- Recorded sale prices leave out seller credits. The sold report puts them back.
- The odds of selling are the share of listings that actually sold in a period, by neighborhood. They change how you plan, not whether you sell.
- Timing is specific to the neighborhood and price range, not the island.
- Every figure I publish carries the month it was pulled. Numbers without a date are not data.
- The MLS is the only source. No portal estimates, no national averages.
The sold report, with seller credits
A seller credit is money the seller agrees to pay toward the buyer’s closing costs or rate buy-down. It reduces what the seller actually received, and it never appears in the recorded sale price. Two homes that “sold for” the same number can have netted their owners very different amounts. The sold report lists recent closed sales by neighborhood with the credits next to each one, so you see the real number. It is refreshed monthly. Get the sold report.
The odds of selling
Of the homes listed in a neighborhood over a period, what share actually sold, and is that share rising or falling? That is the odds of selling. It does not tell you whether to sell. It tells you what to expect when you do: at high odds you price at market and plan on weeks; at low odds the same home takes months and the first offer matters more. See the odds for your area.
Timing
Oahu is less seasonal than the mainland but not flat, and the pattern differs by neighborhood and price range. The timing report shows when homes near you have tended to go under contract fastest, so a listing can be planned rather than guessed. The timing report.
How I use these with a client
Pricing starts with the sold report. Planning starts with the odds and the timing. Then we look at the home itself, which no report can see: condition, lot, view, the street. The numbers set the range. The conversation sets the price. If you want the numbers for your own neighborhood, each report above is free and arrives by email.
Why I do not publish island-wide figures here
Because they would be out of date the month after they were written, and because an island-wide median tells a Kailua owner or a Hawaii Kai buyer almost nothing. The reports are built by neighborhood and dated. This page explains them; it does not try to be one.
Want the actual sold data near you, including the seller credits the portals cannot show?
The sold report is free and arrives by email every month.
Get the sold report See the odds of sellingFrequently asked questions
Where does the data come from?
HiCentral MLS, the Honolulu Board of REALTORS multiple listing service, pulled directly. No portal estimates, no national datasets.
How often are the reports updated?
The sold report monthly, around the 5th. The assumable list on the 1st and the 15th. The odds and timing reports on their own monthly schedules. Every report carries the month it was pulled.
Can I get the numbers for a neighborhood you do not list?
Yes. Ask, and I pull it. The easiest way is the sold report form; choose Other and name the neighborhood.
Are these reports a valuation of my home?
No. They show what sold and how the neighborhood is moving. A valuation of your specific home comes from a conversation and a visit. Market data is compiled from MLS sources and is not an appraisal.